SCC Preview: Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix

Can Johnson do it? Well, Las Vegas oddsmakers surely think so. In fact, they are so positive Johnson will win the championship that bettors no longer can bet on who will win it all. Looking at Johnson's record at Phoenix, he will go a long way this weekend alone. He has eight top-10s and has never finished worse than 15th and is bidding to become the first driver ever to win three consecutive races at Phoenix.

Moving on to Homestead, Johnson has five top-10s in seven starts on South Beach. In 2005, he crashed and finished 40th, so he does have a bad finish there recently. But there is no smarter team, and it likely will be a scenario in which Johnson just needs to finish in the top 15 at that race in order to clinch it. Edwards and Biffle will again be battling it out to finish second. The pair finished tied for second in 2005, with Biffle winning the tiebreaker with more race victories that season.

So as the final two races approach, the real-life "race" might be over, but the race for the Stock Car Challenge title is still neck and neck. The top 12 spots are separated by less than 100 points. Let's see if I can help out those owners chasing the SCC-leading Van Asdale entry -- and you others as well.

Jimmie Johnson (Market value: 24.8) won the spring race at Phoenix, and not in fluky fashion. Johnson has two wins and eight top-10s in 10 races at Phoenix. No, he was not impressive at Texas, but this team is nearly slump-proof. I fully expect Johnson will bounce back this weekend and challenge for a win. At the very least, he'll lead some laps, and a top-5 seems like a near-sure thing.

Denny Hamlin (21.5) has finished third in three of the past four races at Phoenix, and he loves these flat tracks. Another driver that wasn't impressive at Texas, Hamlin will come back in a huge way this week. Again, a top-5 seems like a near-sure thing for this No. 11 team.

I might not list Carl Edwards (24.2) as a favorite, but he'll be right there at the end. He has won two straight races, and he finished fourth in the spring race at Phoenix. It is so hard to win three races in a row, and I am not sure the 99 will find Victory Lane, but Edwards will be strong. With five top-10s in eight starts at the flat, mile-long track, he's a very solid choice.

Jeff Gordon (22.2) finished "only" 13th in the spring race at Phoenix, but he has been on a real run of good finishes and desperately wants to end his winless streak. Of the two remaining races, this is the better shot for him. Gordon has 15 top-10s in 19 Phoenix starts and was second last week at Texas. Gordon is hard to call a favorite since he hasn't really dominated anywhere this season, but he'll be strong this weekend.

I'm going to stick my neck out a bit with AJ Allmendinger (14.7). He didn't run in the first Phoenix race due to being removed from the car when he wasn't making races. And I know he's been really good on the "cookie-cutter" tracks and generally not anywhere else, but he has a lot going for him. He's motivated to find a job for 2009, and he finished 15th at Martinsville, another flat track. Also, he had two teen finishes at Pocono, another oddly shaped flat track. Allmendinger could squeeze out another top-20, and that would be well worth it at that price.

Tony Stewart (21.2) is looking like a very distracted driver right now. He has only one top-10 in the past seven races, and it seems the building of a new race team, especially with such a short offseason in NASCAR, is taking up a lot of his time and energy. He has the equipment and talent to compete at any track, especially Phoenix, where he has eight top-10s in 13 races. But he is just mediocre right now. If he were competing for a championship, we might see a different "Big Orange," but he's out of the title hunt, so we're getting a muted version of the No. 20 car.

Carl Edwards (Locked at 23.4): He was a nice buy-low option for me.
Jimmie Johnson (Locked at 22.8): After this week, the title-clinching will be a true formality.
Greg Biffle (Locked 21.5): His value has jumped too much to drop, and he'll be the favorite next week.
Casey Mears (17.9): Two teen finishes in past two races at Phoenix, and he's running great.
AJ Allmendinger (Locked at 14.2): For all the reasons stated above, I love this kid. Someone hire him already!